The world is on the brink of a potential nuclear arms race as the last remaining treaty between the United States and Russia, the New START treaty, expires on February 4, 2026. This development has sparked fears and concerns among experts and officials alike, who warn of the potential consequences if the two nuclear superpowers are left without limits on their arsenals.
Thomas Countryman, a former acting undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, expressed a dire warning: "The worst-case scenario is that tensions spiral, and an unforeseen incident could trigger a rapid escalation into a full-scale nuclear conflict."
The New START treaty, which came into force in 2011, set limits on both countries' nuclear capabilities. It capped the number of deployed nuclear warheads at 1,550, restricted the deployment of intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and heavy bombers equipped with nuclear weapons, and imposed limits on Russian intercontinental nuclear weapons that could reach the US. However, critics argue that these limitations are outdated, especially given China's rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal.
President Donald Trump and others criticized the treaty for not covering China, which is projected to have around 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035 if its current expansion pace continues, according to a Pentagon report from 2022. The treaty was initially valid for 10 years, but the US and Russia agreed to extend it for another five years in 2021, ending on February 4, 2026.
The US and Russia could continue adhering to the treaty's caps, but concerns arise as Trump has vowed to resume nuclear testing and there's been no movement in that direction. Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed extending the treaty for another year in September, which Trump initially supported. However, Trump has recently shown little concern about the treaty's lapse, stating that the US will negotiate a better agreement if it expires.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested the US won't maintain the treaty's limits, advocating for a trilateral nuclear deal involving the US, Russia, and China. Beijing has consistently rejected trilateral negotiations, and the Trump administration's response remains uncertain.
Experts warn that allowing the treaty's limits to lapse is not in the US's national security interest. Paul Dean, a former assistant secretary of state, emphasized the benefits of predictability, transparency, and avoiding potential miscommunication or miscalculation in nuclear matters. He suggests a temporary continuation of the treaty's limits.
The Trump administration's response is yet to be determined, but former officials and experts predict potential increases in US nuclear warheads, reversing previous treaty compliance measures. Some experts argue this is necessary to reassure allies who might develop their own nuclear arsenals.
Heather Williams, a director on nuclear issues, highlights the importance of demonstrating nuclear resolve to prevent allies from questioning US support. However, rapid Russian action is also expected if the US expands beyond treaty limits.
Rose Gottemoeller, the chief US negotiator for New START, warns of a worst-case scenario where Russia rapidly deploys additional nuclear warheads, leaving the US at a disadvantage while China rebuilds its arsenal. She advocates for a one-year extension to the treaty's limits, allowing time for preparation and planning.
However, some experts disagree with the benefits of extending the existing limits. Matthew Kroenig argues that the US's primary nuclear goal is deterrence, not treaties, and China's growing arsenal requires a new strategy to deter nuclear war with both Russia and China.
The Biden administration has taken steps to prepare for potential increases in warheads, but the US strategy must account for China's growing nuclear capabilities. Abandoning New START without a clear path to engage China in trilateral negotiations is seen as a risky move by some experts, who warn of a potential three-way arms race.
Daryl Kimball, the executive director of the Arms Control Association, emphasizes the need for diplomatic efforts to avoid a costly and dangerous arms race among the US, Russia, and China.
